Determinants of dengue transmission dynamics are complex and are likely to include environmental and climate factors. Understanding of the spatio-temporal trends of dengue incidence may help to improve tools for predicting models the timing and magnitude of annual dengue epidemics. To determine if dengue cases increase is correlated with climate factors in 20 provinces in Southern Vietnam, the authors undertook a temporal analysis between 592,938 dengue cases notified in Southern Vietnam and three climate factors: monthly average temperature, monthly average humidity, monthly rainfall from 2001 to 2010 by using wavelet analysis. Dengue data was collected at Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh city while climate data was supplied by the National Center of Hydrometeological station. To quantify the association (phase analysis) between monthly dengue cases and climate factors (mean temperature, rainfall, and humidity), phase analyses were performed with wavelet analysis. The result showed that temperature, humidity, and rainfall correlated positively with dengue incidence. In the annual cycle, mean temperature is in phase with dengue incidence with a lag of approximately one or two month. Humidity and rainfall is often in phase with dengue incidence with synchronized peak, a lag of less than one month was observed in small numer of provinces. Climate factors were found to be an key role in driving the accelaration of dengue incidence in Central of Vietnam.
- Đăng nhập để gửi ý kiến